How to Spot the Best Momentum Stocks

Momentum stocks are stocks with high returns over the past three to 12 months. Momentum investors seek out stocks with the potential to double or triple within just a few months. Momentum investors generally hold a stock for a few months and monitor their holdings daily. They tend to sell their stocks with a few months after acquiring it.

There are many stocks in the market that accelerate in price that go on to make 100% to 300% returns in less than year or even in a few months.

However, for the investors who are just starting, momentum investing can be a confusing and frustrating experience to find these stocks. Here are some keys to spot momentum stocks.
One of the things to spot momentum stocks is the relative strength of the stock compared to the overall market over a specific timeframe. Most momentum investors seek at a stock which has outperformed at least 90% of all stocks over the past 12 months. When major indices declines, a great momentum stock exhibit strength by holding or even exceeding their highs. When the major indices rally, momentum stocks typically lead the rally and make new highs outpacing the market.
Potential momentum stocks should show in their balance sheet that they are growing at an accelerated rate.

Another factor is the Earnings per Share growth. At least a 15% year-over-year earnings per share growth is needed to qualify a momentum stock. Stocks with accelerating rates of EPS growth over previous quarters are also considered.

In addition, a positive forecast by at least some analysts regarding the Company’s earnings in necessary for identifying momentum stocks. Further, momentum investors also looks at whether the reported earnings exceeded the analysts forecasts compared to the last quarter.
A company can’t grow its earnings faster than its Return on Equity, which is the Company’s net income divided by the number of shares held by investors, without raising cash by borrowing or selling more shares. Many companies raise cash by issuing stock or borrowing, but both alternatives reduce earnings-per-share growth. For momentum investors, a potential stock should show an ROE of 17% or better.

The share price and trading volume of the stock are also factors to spot a momentum stock.
The only reason for stocks that trade at very low prices is that they are already out of favor with the market. Avoid stocks trading below US$5.

Momentum investors seek stocks that have high trading volumes, the number of shares traded daily on the average. Very low trading volumes indicate the markets lack of interest. Generally, momentum investors seek those with a minimum volume of 100,000 shares or at least see their average daily volume increases as the value of the stock rises.

Start keeping a list of potential momentum stocks and track their performance in the market. In time, you will be able to spot the stocks that go on to make 100% to 300% returns in less than year or even in a few months.

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What Stock Should I Buy?

Often, one of the first questions an investor asks is “What stock should I buy?” This question can involve a great deal of time and analysis. In many cases, the average investor will want to find out what the company does; review its financial statements; see if it pays a dividend, as well as how long that dividend has been paid and whether or not it will continue to be paid; discover whether the company’s earnings are rising or falling; analyze its products; and so on. In other words, the investor does a great deal of fundamental research to find out if that stock is the one to purchase.

This analysis answers the question of what to buy. However, it says nothing of when to buy. The best stocks have periods when they perform worse than the market, just as the weakest stocks have times when they perform better than the market. If no one is going to buy the so-called best stocks, then they are not going to rise. On the other hand, if a large number of investors buy a fundamentally weak stock, then it is headed higher.

At DWA we use point and figure charts to determine when to buy stocks. By charting stocks with this method, we see the movement that determines whether supply or demand is in control of the stock. If it is supply, then the probability is high for that stock to decline. The odds favor a rise in the price if demand is winning the battle. You will also want to keep in mind that there are no dis-interested investors. Back in the 1920s, there was no Securities and Exchange Commission to regulate companies and when and what they reported. Rumors were rampant, and it was not surprising to see wealthy and knowledgeable investors pool their money to trade. These pools gave them a huge advantage over the individual investors.

Today the Internet creates stock movement. There are chat rooms everywhere and practically anyone can offer ideas. Remember that the person who is wildly promoting or recommending a particular stock more than likely already owns it. You will also want to keep in mind that the investor who is badmouthing a stock has probably just sold that stock or has sold it short, hoping to buy it back at a lower price.

In this environment, you need something that will help you sort through the morass of opinions out there to determine whether demand or supply is in control. We recommend using technical analysis, preferably the point and figure methodology. Let the fundamental analyst help determine what you buy. But let the technical analyst determine when you buy that particular stock. When the market is topping, typically the news stories are all good, and that is not when you want to buy.

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